DIAMOND MARKET INSIGHTS

The natural diamond market entered August 2026 with signs of greater stability in parts of the polished-diamond sector following an extended period of price pressure. July produced a more encouraging picture across several widely traded diamond sizes, although conditions remain uneven and the broader market continues to face significant challenges.

Polished Diamond Prices Show Signs of Stabilization

According to Rapaport’s July market data, the RAPI index for 1-carat diamonds was stable during the month, ending thirteen consecutive months of decline. Smaller diamonds performed more strongly, with the 0.30-carat index increasing by 1.6% and the 0.50-carat category rising by 1.8%. The 3-carat category recorded a more modest increase of 0.2%.

The results represent an improvement after a prolonged period of pressure on polished-diamond prices. However, one month of stabilization should not be interpreted as confirmation of a broad market recovery. Pricing conditions continue to vary considerably according to diamond size, quality and individual characteristics.

Rough Diamond Market Remains Challenging

Conditions in the rough-diamond market remain more difficult.

De Beers reported that rough-diamond trading conditions remained challenging during the first half of 2026. Demand for larger, higher-quality natural diamonds proved comparatively resilient, while smaller and lower-quality diamonds continued to experience pricing pressure.

The company’s average rough-diamond price index declined by 16% during the first half of 2026. De Beers’ average realized price also fell to $105 per carat, compared with $155 per carat in the corresponding period of 2025. The latter decline partly reflected a sales mix containing a higher proportion of lower-value goods.

Consumer-market conditions also remain mixed. De Beers reported encouraging signals in the United States and continued robust demand in India, while overall demand in mainland China continued to decline.

Supply and Production Outlook

The supply picture requires careful interpretation.

De Beers produced 14.9 million carats during the first half of 2026, an increase of 46% compared with the same period in 2025. However, much of that increase reflected operational and comparison effects, including extended maintenance at Orapa during the previous year and planned ore releases at Gahcho Kué.

Production is expected to decrease during the second half of 2026 as planned maintenance and production adjustments take effect. De Beers has maintained full-year production guidance of 21 to 26 million carats.

Looking further ahead, De Beers forecasts that global rough-diamond production will decline over the coming years. Combined with a gradual normalization of inventories throughout the diamond value chain, this could contribute to a more balanced supply-and-demand environment over the medium term.

Natural and Lab-Grown Diamonds Continue to Diverge

The growing distinction between natural and laboratory-grown diamonds remains an important influence on the market.

Retail prices for synthetic lab-grown diamonds continue to fall, according to De Beers, while competition is expected to maintain pressure on margins. This widening price difference is contributing to an increasingly clear separation between natural and laboratory-grown diamonds as two distinct product categories.

The effect is not uniform across the natural-diamond market. Smaller and lower-value natural diamonds remain particularly exposed to competition from lab-grown alternatives, while demand for larger and higher-quality natural diamonds has demonstrated greater resilience.

What Does This Mean for Diamond Buyers?

The latest figures suggest improving stability in certain parts of the polished natural-diamond market, but buyers should be cautious about interpreting broad market indices as an indication of the value of an individual diamond.

Diamond prices depend on much more than carat weight. Cut quality, color, clarity, proportions, fluorescence, certification, rarity and overall desirability can all materially affect the value and marketability of an individual stone.

Two diamonds of the same carat weight and broadly similar grading can therefore have significantly different market values.

For collectors and investors, rarity and quality remain particularly important considerations. Exceptional natural diamonds and scarce categories can behave differently from the broader commercial diamond market.

DiamondsAntwerp.com Market View

August 2026 presents a more constructive picture for natural polished diamonds than much of the preceding year. The stabilization of polished prices across several important categories is encouraging, while expectations for lower global rough-diamond production could contribute to a more balanced market over time.

However, it remains too early to describe these developments as the beginning of a sustained recovery. Rough-diamond trading conditions remain challenging, demand is uneven across major consumer markets, and lower-value natural diamonds continue to face competitive pressure from laboratory-grown alternatives.

DiamondsAntwerp.com therefore views the current market as one showing early signs of stabilization rather than a confirmed recovery.

For buyers, collectors and investors, the emphasis should remain on the quality, rarity and individual characteristics of a diamond rather than relying solely on broad market indices. Market trends provide valuable context, but the value of an individual diamond ultimately depends on the characteristics and desirability of the stone itself.

Market information reflects data and industry reporting available in August 2026. Diamond market conditions can change, and market indices should not be interpreted as valuations of individual diamonds.